I'm Sure...

For the NCAA Tournament, I've decided to try out something new. Here are a few things I'm sure of heading into the tournament and things that you should pay attention to when filling out your bracket in hopes of finally winning the office pool this year.

...all four #1 seeds will make the Elite Eight. The toughest competition faced by any #1 seed this year will be by North Carolina. They would be facing the winner of Indiana/Arkansas and possibly Winthrop, Notre Dame, or Washington State. Nonetheless, there is a very slim chance that they will lose to any of those teams. In your bracket, I suggest placing every team seeded #1 in the quarterfinals.

...there will be more 6-11 upsets than there will be 5-12 upsets. Surprisingly, for the first time ever, I did not pick one 12 seed to advance past the first round. Led by Luke Harangody, Notre Dame is a fairly safe bet to advance past George Mason. Villanova doesn't have much of a chance against Clemson, in my opinion, either. The Tigers are more like a 4 seed than a 5 to me. In the next, Michigan State has an experienced coach who knows how to win in March. Finally, underrated Drake is playing a not-so-talented team in Western Kentucky.

On the other hand, the 6-11 upsets are plentiful this year. In the East, I'm picking St. Joe's, a team that just upset #3-seeded Xavier, over Oklahoma. In the Midwest, I'll take Kansas State over USC any day. Michael Beasley will get at least one NCAA tournament victory before the NBA. Lastly, in the West I took Baylor over Purdue. The Bears have been very streaky this year and I think they have this one against the Boilermakers.

...neither Washington State nor Vanderbilt will make it to the Sweet 16. WSU is usually a tough matchup for teams who cannot adapt to their style of play. Their first round opponent, Winthrop, plays a similar style and will have no trouble giving them a run for their money. Suppose they do pull out a win over Winthrop, Wazzou State will then most likely face Notre Dame. Two tough games in three days? I doubt they win both.

Next, I am confused as to why people think Vanderbilt will do well in the tournament. Look at all their marquee wins and everything; it was all done at home. They CANNOT win on the road. Yes, they are 19-0 at home. However, they are 5-7 on the road. Memorial Gym is obviously quite the advantage for the Commodores. Too bad they can't play their tournament games there.

...neither Duke nor North Carolina will make the National Championship game. I have both teams bowing out in the Elite Eight, but neither will even make it to the title game for a couple reasons. For the Blue Devils, they rely too heavily on the three-point shot. The Clemson game proved they won't win if they don't shoot well from deep. "Live by the three; die by the three." UNC, however, has too much hype and is in an extremely tough bracket. Games against Indiana, Winthrop/Notre Dame, and Louisville/Tennessee make it nearly impossible for the Heels to survive it all.

...Big East teams will contribute to AT LEAST 1/4 of all the teams in the Sweet 16. In my bracket, I have Louisville, Georgetown, Pitt, and Marquette making it to the second weekend of play. Some would argue having Notre Dame or UConn in there as well. My advice is this: if you're filling out a bracket, make sure you have at least 4 Big East teams in the Sweet 16. It will happen. Mark my words.

...the Pac-10 will not have more than one team represented in the Sweet 16. That one team I am referring to is UCLA. Washington State, USC, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona will all get knocked out in the first two rounds. Of those five teams, I only have Stanford and Oregon winning in the first round. The Pac-10 is strong, but the matchups they got for the tournament weren't the best. All five of those teams excluding Stanford have tough first round opponents.

...UCLA will win the West. In the weakest region, the best team in the tournament will win it. Their second round game may be their toughest as they play a resilient BYU squad that gave North Carolina a good game earlier in the year. However, after that the Bruins face either Drake or UConn and either Xavier or Duke. I don't see any of those teams winning against them. Add to all of that the fact that they won't have to leave their home state of California until the Final Four and it seems as if you can't pick against them.


Anyway, I think I've had enough of making predictions that will undoubtedly help you win the pool so I'll move on to MY bracket.

Elite Eight Picks-
East: #2 Tennessee over #1 North Carolina
Midwest: #3 Wisconsin over #1 Kansas
South: #1 Memphis over #2 Texas
West: #1 UCLA over #2 Duke

Final Four Picks-
#2 Tennessee over #3 Wisconsin
#1 UCLA over #1 Memphis

National Championship Pick-
UCLA 67, Tennessee 60

There you have it. I hope you enjoyed reading my blog and I hope that it helps you when you're filling out your bracket. Also, it helps to not be a homer at all. If you're not, it only betters your chance of taking home the big money. Have a good time watching the games tomorrow!

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