Game-Planning 12

College basketball has been interesting to say the least since my last Game-Planning blog was posted. Duke defeated a North Carolina team that was obviously hurting with the loss of Ty Lawson. Indiana edged out Illinois in double overtime. Louisville defeated highly-ranked Georgetown in a very entertaining matchup. More recently, Texas upset Kansas in a battle between two ranked teams.

I was sick on Tuesday; I'm sure I wasn't the only one either. That night was spent watching the games on ESPN. I had the pleasure of watching Purdue upset Michigan State. What surprised me most about this was the Boilermakers' stifling man-to-man defense they played. In fact, they held Drew Neitzel without a field goal until late in the second half. I then proceeded to watch Vanderbilt put a nice thumping on Kentucky. I was, to say the least, very impressed with A.J. Ogilvy not only on the offensive end but also with his defense on Patrick Patterson.

Also, I'd like to express my deep concern for North Carolina. They have had 57 turnovers in their last three games and only 47 assists. Quentin Thomas is obviously hurting the Tar Heels out there and Lawson must come back soon if UNC wants to win the ACC this season. They only beat Virginia by one point the other night and had another scary outing against Clemson on Sunday.


1st Quarter- #11 Texas at Baylor

In my opinion, this game could be the most exciting one all week. I'm almost beside myself as to which team I should choose as the winner. Obviously, the Longhorns are the favorite but any diehard college hoops fan will tell you that Baylor is definitely one of the best unranked teams in the nation this year. They are led by Curtis Jerrells (15 pts, 4 reb, 4 ast) and Kevin Rogers (12 pts, 8 reb, 1 ast) who are only two of the five Baylor players averaging at least eleven points per game. The Bears have posted nice wins over Winthrop, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M (in 5OT).

Texas is led by D.J. Augustin (19 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast), A.J. Abrams (18 pts, 3 reb, 2 ast), and Damion James (13 pts, 11 reb, 1 ast). Last time these two teams met, the Longhorns won 80-72 in Austin. In that meeting, Baylor shot a paltry 32% from deep while Texas was shooting 43% from that same distance. The Bears are a much better free throw shooting team and are one of the most well-conditioned teams in the nation though.

That is only part of the reason as to why I am picking Baylor to win. The other would be the fact that Augustin is in a shooting slump right now and appears to be trying to do too much as far as penetrating the lane goes. You can watch this game Saturday, February 16th at 6pm eastern time on ESPN. You should expect this game to be up and down the court with the final score at least making it to the 70s.


2nd Quarter- #10 Michigan State at #13 Indiana

I love two matchups in this game. Eric Gordon vs. Drew Neitzel and D.J. White vs. Raymar Morgan. Gordon (21 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast) and White (18 pts, 11 reb, 1 ast) lead the 20-3 Hoosiers. Michigan State is led by Morgan (16 pts, 7 reb, 2 ast) and Neitzel (14 pts, 3 reb, 5 ast). The Spartans are coming off a loss to Purdue and should respond with an intensity that Indiana will have trouble matching.

This game could very well come down to the role players. The Spartans had to rely heavily on Kalin Lucas (10 pts, 4 ast) when things weren't going right in the first half against the Boilermakers. They will also have to depend heavily on the rebounding of Goran Suton (9 pts, 8 reb). Jordan Crawford (11 pts) and Armon Bassett (10 pts) will have to have decent games and Jamarcus Ellis's (8 pts, 8 reb, 4 ast) all-around game could be the difference-maker.

I seriously doubt that Indiana will wreak havoc on defense the way Purdue did. Michigan State will be able to get Neitzel open looks and the inside will open up for Morgan. The Spartans will win over Indiana. You can tune in to watch this game Saturday, February 16th at 9pm eastern time on ESPN.


The Halftime Show

Who is the best point guard in America? To me, this comes down to about six or seven players who have proved that they are the elite of point guards today in college. The first two that come to mind are D.J. Augustin (19 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast) of Texas and Jamont Gordon (18 pts, 6 reb, 5 ast) of Mississippi State. Next would be UNC's Ty Lawson (14 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast), Memphis's Derrick Rose (14 pts, 4 reb, 4 ast), and UCLA's Darren Collison (14 pts, 3 reb, 4 ast). The last couple would have to be between Sean Singletary (19 pts, 4 reb, 6 ast), Tyrese Rice (20 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast), and Mike Green (15 pts, 6 reb, 5 ast).

For me to rank those point guards would be nearly impossible. However, I will tell you that, if not for the Iowa State game, Augustin would definitely be my choice. Lawson's injury surely hurts his chances as well. Sadly, not a one of these guys even compares to Gary Payton's last season at Oregon State in which he finished with averages of 26 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, and 3 steals. Here's a little chart for you that compares the top three:

D.J. Augustin -- 19.3 ppg - 5.8 apg - 2.7 TO/g - 1.3 spg - 43% FG - 43 3PM
Jamont Gordon -- 18.1 ppg - 4.7 apg - 3.7 TO/g - 1.1 spg - 45% FG - 43 3PM
Ty Lawson -- 13.6 ppg - 5.7 apg - 2.3 TO/g - 1.9 spg - 54% FG - 20 3PM

Gordon's high turnover rate and low (compared to the other two) assists average has me putting him at #3. Lawson's somewhat low points per game average and lack of perimeter shooting has me putting him at #2. Obviously, that leaves Augustin at #1 who, despite his recent shooting slump, is still the best point guard in the nation. He's a good shooter and, like other good shooters, he will get out of this slump eventually. My decision in putting him #1 was also helped by Texas's upsetting of Kansas on Monday night.


3rd Quarter- #6 UCLA at USC

Ahh yes, the crosstown rivalry. The University of Southern California versus the University of California-Los Angeles. This will be a matchup of two fabulous freshmen: Kevin Love of the Bruins and OJ Mayo of the Trojans. In my humble opinion, Love is twice the athlete and, more importantly, person than OJ is. UCLA is coming off a devastating loss to Washington and should come out with a high intensity level in this one. They are led by Love (18 pts, 11 reb, 2 ast) down low while Josh Shipp (14 pts, 3 reb, 2 ast), Darren Collison (14 pts, 3 reb, 4 ast), and Russell Westbrook (12 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast) control the backcourt.

USC, on the other hand, is led by Mayo (20 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast), Davon Jefferson (13 pts, 6 reb, 1 ast), and Taj Gibson (10 pts, 8 reb, 1 ast). They, too, are coming off a loss to Washington State, in which they got their asses handed to them in losing by 24 points! In the first meeting between these teams, USC defeated UCLA 72-63. Davon Jefferson had an amazing game with 25 points and 9 rebounds. Kevin Love wasn't too shabby either with 18 points and 12 rebounds. What lost the game for the Bruins was simply poor shooting. They shot 33% from the field while USC was making 61% of their attempts.

I seriously doubt USC will ever be able to shoot near 60% against UCLA. Therefore, I am picking UCLA to win by about 8-12 points. I expect this game to be filled with tension and intensity. You can tune in to watch Sunday, February 17th at 10pm eastern time on FSN. The good news is (for all you East Coasters) you can stay up late and watch since there is no school on Monday for Presidents' Weekend.


4th Quarter- #19 Purdue at #13 Indiana

The Hoosiers are 1-2 against ranked teams this year. The lone team they beat, Southern Illinois, is no longer ranked. They have lost to Wisconsin twice when the Badgers were ranked 13th and 14th. My first prediction for the game is this: Eric Gordon will not score 15 points. That has only been done twice this season in games that Gordon has played more than twelve minutes. The Purdue defense will completely stifle Indiana, similar to what they did to Michigan State in that upset earlier this week.

Indiana is led by Gordon (21 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast) and D.J. White (18 pts, 11 reb, 1 ast). They have four players averaging in double figures for points. The Boilermakers, however, are led by the two freshmen, Robbie Hummel (11 pts, 6 reb, 3 ast) and E'Twaun Moore (11 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast). Keaton Grant (11 pts) should also be a scoring threat for Purdue.

Purdue has only been involved in one conference game that reached the eighties in scoring this year. Don't expect for this one to be extremely high-scoring. In fact, in their three wins over ranked opponents they only average 64 points per game. Purdue's 10-game winning streak will remain alive as they will defeat Indiana. The game can be viewed Tuesday, February 19th at 7pm eastern time on ESPN.


The Postgame Video Vault






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Poll Result- 50% of the voters believe that Baylor is the best unranked team in the country while the other 50% think Louisville is the best. Do you agree?

NBA Point Guard Preview

The season is coming. Fast. As a point guard myself, I like to compare players at that position. Some players that flew up since the beginning of last year are Deron Williams, Baron Davis, and Mo Williams. To start this season I will rank the top eight point guards. All the stats are courtesy of 82games.com. The passing rating is a combination of assists, passing turnovers, and bad passes. The 'hands' rating is a combination of offensive fouls, bad passes, and ball handling turnovers. All clutch stats must be in the last 5 minutes of either the 4th quarter or overtime and the game must be within 5 points either way.

1. Steve Nash - He is the greatest playmaker in the game today. Nash makes everyone around him better. This year he will have three new teammates: Grant Hill, Brian Skinner, and Alando Tucker. Yes, he is getting older but with age comes wisdom. He knows what he's doing out there and can still play the game. This year may be the year for the Phoenix Suns. When Nash was on the floor last year, his team got 119 points every 100 possessions. When he wasn't on the court they were getting 106 points every 100 possessions.
Stats: Passing Rating- 22.3
'Hands' Rating- 41.3
Clutch Scoring per 48 min.- 36.4
Clutch Passing- 21.2
Clutch 'Hands'- 39.4

2. Jason Kidd - No matter how old this guy gets he'll still be able to make a difference in games. Last year he averaged 13 points, 9 assists, and 8 rebounds a game. Kidd hit a career high in rebounds last year and is still racking up the triple-doubles (he is third on the all-time list and had 12 this past season). Because of that, he joined the Big O and Magic Johnson as the only players to ever average 9 assists and 8 rebounds in the same season.
Stats: Passing Rating- 15.1
'Hands' Rating- 30.3
Clutch Scoring per 48 min.- 15.4
Clutch Passing- 14.4
Clutch 'Hands'- 25.4

3. Deron Williams - Last year's breakout star should have another successful season in Utah. Williams raised his assists per game average from 4.5 to 9.3 last year. He also averaged 16.2 points per game. Last season, in clutch situations, he played 94% of all the minutes which is a testament to endurance and fatigue.
Stats: Passing Rating- 14.9
'Hands' Rating- 27.7
Clutch Scoring per 48 min.- 25.7
Clutch Passing- 20.1
Clutch 'Hands'- 36.8

4. Chauncey Billups - He is the "assists-per-turnover-ratio" king. Billups led that category the past two season. Last year, he averaged close to 4 assists for every turnover of his. Also, he was getting 17 points a night. This year, he will have some young legs to work with in the backcourt with the acquisition of Rodney Stuckey.
Stats: Passing Rating- 12.5
'Hands' Rating- 25.3
Clutch Scoring per 48 min.- 34.6
Clutch Passing- 13.9
Clutch 'Hands'- 35.2

5. Chris Paul - He should have a good bounceback year after he battled some injuries last year. Paul was the unanimous Rookie of the Year in the 2005-06 season. Playing for the Hornets, he hasn't gotten much help in making it to the postseason though. However, that should change with a healthy Peja Stojakovic and a new backcourt mate, Morris Peterson.
Stats: Passing Rating- 16.1
'Hands' Rating- 30.1
Clutch Scoring per 48 min.- 26.2
Clutch Passing- 7.7
Clutch 'Hands'- 53.5

6. Tony Parker - He had a breakout Finals appearance but I really don't think he'll be able to sustain the level of play that he was it. If he can, he deserves to be number two or three on this list but that happening is unlikely. Besides, he wasn't outstanding in the regular season last year averaging 18 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists each game.
Stats: Passing Rating- 8.5
'Hands' Rating- 18.3
Clutch Scoring per 48 min.- 18.8
Clutch Passing- 4.8
Clutch 'Hands'- 10.2

7. Gilbert Arenas - You're probably thinking, "why the hell does he have this guy so low?" right? Well, I'm wondering if he can actually help his team and win games, or is Gilbert Arenas going to just be a sideshow attraction this year and only score points? He's very concentric and can be a ballhog at times which definitely does not fit the description of a point guard. That's why he is where he is right now.
Stats: Passing Rating- 8.4
'Hands' Rating- 19.6
Clutch Scoring per 48 min.- 47.8
Clutch Passing- 1.2
Clutch 'Hands'- 9.8

8. Baron Davis - Can he stay healthy? That is the big question lingering around about Baron Davis. It's been a problem of his in the past. We know what he can do when's he healthy (see first round of 2007 playoffs against the Mavs), but can he play 70 or 80 games in a year? Well, he hasn't played in more than 67 games in a season since his third year in the League.
Stats: Passing Rating- 16.7
'Hands' Rating- 32.0
Clutch Scoring per 48 min.- 34.6
Clutch Passing- 13.3
Clutch 'Hands'- 31.6

That's it. I hope you liked it. If you have any questions just leave a comment and I'll be sure to answer. Also, here's a little something from an up-and-coming point guard, Mike Conley:


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